Details are included in the first proposal of carbon budgets drawn up by the Committee of Experts on Climate Change (CECC), with experts from the ICM-CSIC among other institutions.
The Committee of Experts on Climate Change (CECC) presented yesterday, in the Auditorium of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Barcelona, the report it has delivered to the Government of Catalonia as the first proposal of carbon budgets. This refers to the recommendation of the total volume of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that Catalonia may emit between 2021 and 2035, which amounts to 403 megatonnes of CO₂ equivalent, thereby achieving a 67% reduction by 2035 compared to 1990. This figure has been determined in line with scientific guidance for achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement and, specifically, to reach climate neutrality by the year 2050, considering technical and economic feasibility within the Catalan context.
The carbon budgets propose an average annual reduction of 8% in GHG emissions from 2021 to 2035, in contrast with the annual average between 2015 and 2019, which stood at a 1% increase in emissions, or the 0.2% reduction in 2022 (the last year with available data). The carbon budget proposal represents a 42% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, which is higher than the one suggested in the draft of the Integrated Energy and Climate Plan of Catalonia 2030 (PINECCAT30), which proposes a 29% reduction in emissions compared to 1990. This plan will need to set the targets for the energy transition by 2030 on the path towards climate neutrality.
To achieve this objective, according to the CECC, ambitious public policies in energy, mobility and green taxation are required, along with priority investments in renewable energies, public and collective transport, building renovation, policies framed within citizen and business participation processes that promote sustainable consumption models and a fair ecosocial transition.
A carbon budget for each sector
The CECC report sets out both the overall and disaggregated carbon budgets across seven sectors (transport, industry, energy, agriculture, residential, waste and services), and structures them in five-year periods from 2021 to 2035 to guide climate action in Catalonia. Between 2026 and 2030, emissions should be reduced by 45% compared to 2022, and by 2035 they should be reduced by 69% compared to that same year (equivalent to a 67% reduction compared to 1990).
The carbon budgets consider that the sectors facing the most significant challenges are:
The transport sector, which represents 32% of current emissions, and will need to reduce emissions by 72% by 2035 compared to 2022. The CECC's proposals focus on the electrification of private vehicles, increased use of public transport and active mobility (on foot or by bicycle), promotion of freight transport by train, territorial and urban planning, and the implementation of housing policies that help contain mobility and reduce air travel in favour of rail travel.
The industrial sector, which currently emits 28% of the total, must reduce emissions by up to 65%. This could be achieved, according to the CECC, through an overall reduction in the demand for products, a decrease in energy consumption and improved production efficiency, the use of renewable energy, and the development of carbon capture and storage technologies.
The energy sector, which accounts for 13% of current emissions, must reduce emissions by 91%. This will be done mainly through a substantial increase in renewable energies and the replacement of gas and diesel-based power generation. As this sector affects all others transversally, the carbon budgets consider reducing energy demand through several approaches, including intensifying energy renovations in housing, promoting a decrease in tourism in favour of other less CO₂-intensive economic sectors, and reorganising the energy generation model, for example by promoting energy communities and shared self-consumption.
This is a significant and sustained reduction in emissions from the first year onwards, involving all sectors, and aligns with the scientific guidelines for achieving the Paris Agreement targets. The CECC is making this commitment in order to avoid putting at risk the economy and the well-being of current and future generations, by anticipating the reductions required for the 2036–2050 period and noting that the longer decarbonisation is delayed, the more expensive it becomes and the less prepared we will be to adapt to a green and competitive economy.
The CECC stresses that postponing the most intense reduction of emissions over time would place excessive demands on the various sectors and future generations, lead to a loss of competitiveness and risk of social disruption. For these reasons, it is advisable to carry it out over more time and in a gradual manner. In addition to ensuring an effective and fair transition for citizens and all social and economic sectors towards a prosperous and decarbonised economy, the proposal presented also complies with climate justice criteria for meeting the global objectives for reducing GHG emissions. The climate justice approach helps define what each territory’s fair contribution should be to the common global goal, based on principles of equity, responsibility, capacity and the right to development.
The carbon budgets include all GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and fluorinated gases) and have been developed using available official data, proprietary forecasting models, consultations with economic stakeholders, and the available scientific research.