Earth Observation in a changing world threatened by Tipping Points

Our world exhibits non-linear behavior, challenging the expectation of smooth, predictable and reversible changes with the reality of abrupt, unexpected and potentially irreversible shifts. Tipping points (TP) and abrupt changes in the Earth system represent arguably the most significant risk in a changing world, threatening our environment, society and economy. The identification, monitoring and analysis of these phenomena are crucial to drive adaptation and mitigation strategies. The EO4TIP project seeks to advance towards a new Earth Observation (EO) paradigm, Remote Sensing v3.0, addressing these challenges by leveraging the combined expertise of the two teams, CSIC and UPC, with a long joint research trajectory. The key objectives of EO4TIP are: i) to develop EO methodologies to improve the detection, monitoring and analysis of TP and abrupt changes with past, current and planned satellite missions, ii) to promote technological advancements for new instrument concepts to enhance space monitoring, iii) to establish the foundations of an EO-based monitoring system suitable for tipping phenomena to improve identification, analysis and anticipation, particularly at local and regional scales and iv) to raise awareness of the importance of monitoring TP among academia, stakeholders and the general public. 

The main components of the Earth's climate are the atmosphere and the oceans. While atmospheric variables have changed at a fast rate during the last years, what is really striking is the evolution of the ocean component and its interfaces: sea surface temperature rising 6-sigma above the mean of the early years of satellite era, a sudden decrease of sea ice in both poles and evidence of large changes in deep water circulation, apart from the evidences of the acceleration of the global water cycle. The CSIC team is specialized in the study of the ocean and its interfaces (atmosphere, coasts, sea ice). The team has a wide experience with microwave sensors, both active and passive, and has developed high-level methods for multiscale and multivariate processing. In the context of EO4TIP, CSIC will focus on the development of new L-band radiometric missions (with SAILIN proposal as flagship), the analysis of requirements and development of new methodologies for monitoring tipping points and sharp transitions, and to apply them to several study cases, such as, ocean-atmosphere heat flux, deep water formation, freshwater fluxes (especially in the polar regions), or severe storm trends.